Who should replace Jović at Fiorentina? (Part 1)

The methodology for this post has been outlined in the first post of the newsletter which is “Who should succeed Amrabat at Fiorentina?”.

Jović has not been good enough for Fiorentina (so far)

Jović in Florence has not been incredible in Serie A. He scored three goals from 4.8 xG while netting six from 4.0 xG in Conference League.

Don’t get me wrong, he did his work if we focus on this data, but he plays in the most dominant positional side in Serie A after Napoli. Even with all its flaws Fiorentina dominates the pitch, and he’s threatening opponents regularly. They lack someone that put the balls in the net - other than someone that keeps opponents shot outside his own goal - with Fiorentina’s play style I’d expect a striker to at least produce more xG if not more goals. This would mean that he’s at least shooting a lot, and from good positions.

Cabral out of 515 minutes less than the Serb netted eight goals from a total of 5.6 xG between the league and Conference League. I believe he should be the starter for the purple side, and I’d be surprised if Jović gets his loan renewed by Fiorentina with the amount of money he receives, but most importantly after Torreira’s loan wasn’t renewed last year.

Keeping this in mind we should look out for a replacement.

Which profile to go for and why two parts

Reading all until here you know this is a two-part “Sensible Transfer” type of post, but why?

Well, Fiorentina is a medium-big sized team in Italy and consequently in Europe. They don’t usually spend big but sell big after developing players a bit. You can easily think of Vlahović, but you shouldn’t forget Chiesa and Bernardeschi, also the team still has Amrabat and Nico González that could head out for big amounts, while the likes of Milenković and Dodô for different reasons aren’t highly rated but could be.

Do you see the pattern? They are in that limbo where you’re good enough to be the team a player goes to before going to Champions League sides, but not big and organized enough to keep them long enough to gain Champions League Qualification.

All this preamble to say that:

I want to choose between players that aren’t at the peak of the game but will be if they develop properly. But that creates two possibilities, does Fiorentina want a kid to grow or want someone who can provide competition to Cabral immediately? Even though Kouamé can partially do it.

This is what we’re going to analyze with the two parts, in this first one we want to find a “plug and play” player, while the next part will be focused on a “wunderkind”.

Outline the “starter-competition” profile

I did what we did last time for Amrabat.

So I filtered our player database only for players that play or played in teams that resemble Fiorentina’s play style now. Then I searched Vlahović's profile in it and started refining the group of players that UMAP says are similar to him.

Then I’ve done two important things:

• First of all, I put the age threshold for players born after 1998;

• I’ve deleted from the list Osimhen, Mbappé, Núñez, Moukoko, Haaland, Gonçalo Ramos, Hojlund, Kvaratskhelia, Ferrán Torres, and Isak because they are not credible targets for Fiorentina.

I should note that I’ve kept Evanilson, Nketiah, and Balogun even though I don’t think they’re in the price range for Fiorentina, but with the transfer market you never know.

The final list

It’s a pretty long list, and we’ll find something in here, but - most importantly - we have Vlahović and Cabral in here.

Searching the best inside the list

The metrics

I’ve used seven metrics to assess which are the best complete forward in this list, every ball is adjusted, and in this way, I’ve tried to have a non-biased view of data.

I’ve used:

• Box entries (Carries, Passes, and Crosses into the box)

• Key passes

• Take Ons attempted

• Shots attempted

• xT (A model that evaluates every pass with the increased probability of scoring)

• npxG per 90

• Space Threat (Progressive passes received plus Offside)

For each one of them, I’ve looked at the players with a score above the median of the list, then I’ve watched for how many of these metrics a player appeared above the median and then the Top 10 for each metric.

Special mentions

I think deserve to be special mentioned:

• Folarin Balogun, he’s one of the few players to appear for the last two season in the list, and he’s one of the three players that appears above median for all the seven metrics. He’s doing very well in Ligue 1 but for this reasons appears unlikely that Arsenal is going to sell him for a Serie A type of amount in the short-term.

• Eddie Nketiah, with Balogun returning at Arsenal I see the opportunity for him to be sold with a re-buy clause or being loaned out, so basically with Arsenal keeping control of his destiny. Unfortunately he’s above median for only four metrics and doesn’t go in the top 10 for none but npxG per 90, even though playing in the Premier League is not the same as playing in the Championship.

• Arthur Cabral, currently the best option for Fiorentina, he’s above median only in two metrics out of seven.

• Vlahović, he was the main man for Fiorentina not long ago and followed by many European teams. Above median in six metrics, top ten in two out of seven.

• Tyrese Campbell, above median in five and top 10 in three. He’s out because he feels more of a winger than a striker in the footage I’ve seen.

• Cameron Archer, above median in six and top 10 in three. I don’t think Aston Villa would sell him, if that’s not the case is one to watch.

• Joe Gelhardt, above median in five and top 10 in three. Rated as one of the best English talents would be a huge bargain at the right price. Leeds loaning him out would make me think they want control over his future.

The shortlist

Here are the eight guys that seems the right one to scout and target ahead of the summer window.

I’ve divided in three categories the players to have a better sense of what we’re watching: the economic effort, the Vlahović 2.0 and the projects.

The projects

• Michael Obafemi, is not the typical number 9, he hasn’t an imposing frame at 1,69m and he’s a player that you would categorise as a winger, he plays in a central position too. He’s above median for all seven metrics and scores third in key passes while going top 10 for space threat and npxG per 90. He played some Premier Leagues minutes in the previous season but not a lot.

• Bamba Dieng, here for his last season when he was an hybrid between striker and winger. Above median in five metrics with three top 10, one of which is a fourth score in npxG per 90. Currently still in Ligue 1, can boast a good level of performance in top flight.

• Loïs Openda, here for his season in Eredivisie but currently plays in Ligue 1. He too plays as an hybrid between a striker and a winger, he’s the last player to be above median for all seven metrics. Top 10 for three with top four for box entries and xT, which signal his ability in create threat more than scoring where he’s the ninth score.

They’re all in the category of project because their characteristics and roles on the pitch, which make them suitable in playing both on the winger and as a striker. They would offer the possibility of playing with Cabral or in place of him, but they would need a bit of development in the central position and time to adapt, which could be well placed if they turn into a good striker.

The economic effort

Brian Brobbey is the only one in this category, he’s above median for six metrics and in the top 10 for five of the six in which he’s above the median. He returned at Ajax after a brief period at Leipzig. His talent is out of discussion and his suitability too since he plays in a dominant side in the Eredivisie, the problem lies in the sum that would be needed to bring him in Italy. Ajax paid 20 millions to bring him back in Amsterdam and after a season I’d not expect the sum to be lower, further more Ajax is a constant presence in UEFA competitions while Fiorentina is not.

The Vlahović 2.0

In this category I’ve placed the guys that I’d like the most as a second choice striker for Fiorentina. Players that played well in the Championship and should prove themselves in higher leagues, a bit like Balogun. They all are big guys which can boast speed, confidence with the ball and good scoring ability, if that’s not enough they all can play wider and centrally - Vlahović in his youth was a winger - so I regard them a lot of time and patience can be put in their development.

• Ben Brereton Diaz, probably the one that convince me the less of them, he’s above median only in five metrics with a top 10 only in take ons, he can play wider and it’s good in carrying and dribbling, which can make him a valuable asset against low blocks, he can score headers and has experience in Copa America with Chile. He shouldn’t be underestimated but I’d prefer the other two.

• Sam Surridge, he plays for Nottingham Forest but not much, this season has scored only once, but in Championship he was really good. Imposing and fast could be a good striker in the future. Above median in six metrics with three top 10. First in npxG per 90, deserves a chance.

• Viktor Gyökeres, above median in six out of seven and top 10 in five out of six. Sixth for space threat, fifth for key passes, second for box entries and first for xT and takeons. This season at Coventry has 15 goals and 5 assists. Where I’d put my money. Watch the video and you can see his positioning, carrying ability, speed and strength.

If you want a player that could challenge Cabral and develop in someone that could bench him, while providing flexibility - Nico González it’s not sure will stay in Florence - you have your shortlist to scout.

If you want some wonderkids to develop behind Cabral to be next in line wait a couple of days.