To quote a pop-culture film: we're now in the Endgame. This is Part 3 of the review of my summer transfer judgments from last season. Buckle up, because there are a lot of names.

The first piece was titled “The title contenders?” In hindsight — ahahahah, no. But Juventus under Spalletti have good underlying numbers; anyway, that's for another time.

“Napoli further reinforced the defense by adding Sam Beukema for more than €30 million, which in my opinion is not super stonks. He improved on the value allowed to opponents in his zone and for defensive actions value, but the rest of his profile stayed pretty similar. What's good is that Conte is a coach who has consistently improved players under his wing, and the Dutch defender is just entering peak-age for his position given he'll be 27 in November. Still pricey.”

Well, his radar is similar but better than last year, so it's worked out from a sporting perspective given he's played 2,200 minutes between Serie A and the UCL. But on the money?

Beukema is valued at less than 30 million on both Fotmob and Transfermarkt, and both agree his value decreased during his time at Napoli. I'll take this win.

“Napoli also added the best shot-stopper of past Serie A in Milinković-Savić from Torino for €21 million. The rest of his numbers are not that great, so it doesn't seem exactly sensible business as he's already at peak-age for his position at 28 years old until February. Plus, Meret – whose contract Napoli renewed this summer – has started the first two games of Serie A's season.”

The Opta-Analyst reports his goals prevented is just around what’s expected, but that’s okay as that metric is not one with much prediction power. He played around 2400 minutes against Meret 1000 in Serie A, mhhhhhhh and his value you say? Both Fotmob and Transfermarkt agree it’s around 20 million, but I’d say they’re wrong here as I don’t see anyone paying 20 million for him at 8 months from his 30th birthday:

Maybe I’m wrong here, but you need to show me proof of that.

“Napoli then got Miguel Gutiérrez from Girona for around €20 million. That's one tricky signing. Gutiérrez impressed two seasons ago when Girona qualified for the Champions League, and he'll enter peak age for his position next year. But his profile last season – which worsened from the 2023/24 posted below – has almost the same shape, and it's not the one of a defensive fullback. Indeed, if you watched that Girona, you'd know he moved a lot on the pitch and was heavily involved in the finishing part of the game. I don't really think he's the kind of profile Conte would like, but maybe he'll mold him into something else. Still like him coming to Serie A at that price.”

He seems to have retained his price fairly well (TM):

But while he contributed seriously, playing just less than 2,000 minutes for Napoli between the UCL and Serie A, his radar lost all its offensive value in exchange for improvement on the defensive side — making him a more standard player than he was, deleting that element of value in his peculiar style:

“Napoli then got Elmas back from Leipzig on loan with buy option, and Noa Lang from PSV Eindhoven for almost €30 million. They're both born in 1999, so they're both right at the center of peak-age for attacking wingers/attacking midfielders. Elmas was an alright rotation player for Napoli before being sold and a quite good player for Torino last season. He'll probably rotate with the several offensive midfielders/left-wingers options Napoli have in the squad right now. Noa Lang is honestly an exciting player – he could be totally worth the €30 million Napoli paid, and his 2024/25 season numbers were good in many aspects. But he was also not doing defense, which is why he probably won't be the starting winger often and Politano still edges him in Conte's eyes, making him not worth the money. Add to that he's quite injury-prone, and you have a no from me.”

Elmas played 2,481 minutes per Transfermarkt across 44 games, starting 28, so he contributed more than a rotation player — fair play to him, but injuries to KDB, Neres, Vergara, Anguissa and whoever else did play a role here.

As for Lang — aahhaahaha — Conte really hated him and shipped him off to Turkey fast; now that Conte, is gone he seems very happy to come back. His radar literally tanked on everything shooting-related — that's the Serie A heritage, baby, we don't like goals (please shoot me in the face):

“Napoli then got Lorenzo Lucca to be Lukaku's substitute for around €40 million. Born in 2000, he's just getting his feet wet when it comes to peak-age. He's a giant, and if he does well could easily be flipped for the Premier League unicorn trend in a couple years. Plus, as underlined by the team at The Transfer Flow, he played for an offensively underwhelming team at Udinese, and by weighting his radar for Dixon and Coles ratings, his atomic VAEP and xG metrics were quite good. Not a fan, but I can see the potential here.”

Someone please introduce this guy — a native of a town near where I live — to the concept of xG, because that's not a 40 million striker:

Did you say 40 million striker? Well, here's a 50 million one — or maybe not?

“Then Lukaku injured himself for what should be months, and Napoli got themselves Højlund, who is a 2003 so very young, out of peak-age with a lot of experience in tough games and environments. He's a different profile than the other two strikers Napoli have and is more of a run-in-behind type of striker. At around €50 million if made permanent, seems like a project where you give him to Conte who works his magic on him to level him up. Being in Napoli should give him the same power-up it gave to McTominay, as the memes are already predicting online. Under Ten Hag, his shooting quality numbers were good, but he needed to shoot more. I think he'll be good enough to get a permanent deal and be worth it.”

Okay, go and look at his radar from United. He's literally the same player but with less of the ball — please, someone make teams in Italy play attacking football. That's a miss, of course, for this year — and probably next year too, given Allegri is set to be Napoli's new coach at the time of writing.

“Zhegrova's numbers were really good in 2023/24 and became worse in the 2024/25 season, in which he also had a lot of injury trouble and ended up playing around 1500 minutes. At €17 million, it's a gamble I like as he's better than Nico González and costs around half of him, plus he’s already more of an intelligent decision-maker than Coincecao in the final third, but the injury problems are a big question mark.”

Well, he never played, and his value has now decreased on both Fotmob and Transfermarkt since Juventus bought him:

Did I win here? Maybe — but if so, at what cost?

“Clearly a player that costs more than the around €40-45 million Juventus would pay to make him permanent. What's the matter here? Leipzig had a big slump last season, and as a consequence, so did all their players, with Openda the most hit by that. This has been talked about a lot in The Transfer Flow, and the silver lining is if he's in between what he did in 2023/24 and 2024/25, he's worth the money.

But – and it's a big one – where does Openda fit in Juventus' squad? Juventus as of now has Vlahović, David, and Openda as striker options in a system that fits one. Yıldız is the face of the team, and Openda would fit well in that position, while on the other wing Zhegrova and Conceição will battle for the starting place. I'm a Juventus fan so I'm fairly excited for his arrival, but I don't see how much and where he'll play given Vlahović being still in the squad and Yıldız's importance.”

OKAY, I really thought I'd written something more excited. I was already worried, but OH BOY. Who would have thought he'd basically disappear at Juventus and his market value drop that much?

Well, that's another situation where you need to take league and club style into account, eh? I don't think it's a miss here — you can point to the first paragraph and ask how he's a 40 million player, but go and look at the radar that introduced that line.

The following article was about Milan and Inter’s move:

“Akanji is a 1995-born centerback who comes for around €17 million if made permanent and had a long list of injuries in the 2024/25 season. His profile has been one of a very good defender, not an incredible passer, for Manchester City in his last couple of seasons. I'd expect him to be just that, but the amount of money for his age is not something I like for Inter.”

My man, that’s literally what it’s been:

“For the more than €20 million Inter paid for him, I think he's already a pretty good acquisition that could become an impressive one after he continues his growth as a footballer. He and Sucic represent Inter's future in midfield and two very good pickups.”

For Sucic I didn't write anything, as I didn't have any data on him. Diouf played little, and both Fotmob and Transfermarkt agree his value is around 20 million — it's one of those that needs more time to be judged.

“Milan acquired Modrić, who is still a great player, but of course it's hard to see him play a lot of minutes and for a lot of games. It has to be understood where he'll play consistently – if it'll be in front of the backline or more as an attacking midfielder for the same reasons.”

His radar changed quite a lot, but he played more than 3,000 minutes in Serie A alone, so I was wrong.

“Jashari would've probably made Ricci the substitute regista, also creating a hard choice between him and Modrić. But with his tibia fractured in training, he'll need to be reevaluated in the future. His profile was really good at €40 million too – he had the numbers to back that up more or less in every aspect of his game.”

He basically injured himself when he landed and was eased back into the team in winter. That's not judgeable.

“Then Rabiot got back with his favorite manager in the world to play some sort of shadow striker role in midfield. Hard to say it's not worth it for €10 million when you literally play all the games and put up some end product, but I'm not a fan if that decision shapes your whole midfield and you already have Loftus-Cheek with similar functions. Milan certainly have a lot of options between all the new names plus Fofana and Loftus-Cheek, will be interesting to see how they evolve, probably not a lot of fun when they play.”

Was I wrong? I wasn’t.

“For the defense, Milan got centerback Odogu from Wolfsburg for whom I have no data to support the decision. Plus, I don't really know him, but he seems to be talented enough to be paid €10 million and is 19 – think of it whatever you want.”

Still holds true, given he never played.

“Milan also got Athekame from Young Boys for around €10 million – again. He's a 2004 right wingback and I have no data, but fortunately for me, The Transfer Flow guys did say something about him.”

Now he’s worth more than 10 million on Fotmob and Transfermarkt and contributed around 1,000 minutes in Serie A – good job for Milan here!

“Then they got De Winter from Genoa, who seems like a warm body quite far from justifying the amount of money they spent to bring him in, even after considering he played for Genoa.”

A little bit better than a warm body, but Allegri's system probably played a part. I'm interested to see how his output changes in 26/27 before saying anything here:

“And then injury-prone left wingback Pervis Estupiñán for another €20 million. He's going to be 28 in January, had quite an extensive injury record, and had a worse 2024/25 than his 2023/24. So I think Milan could probably find a better way to substitute Theo, but also, he comes from the Premier League, so if he stays healthy will probably be really good in Italy. I think I’m somewhat on board here.”

He didn't get injured, but signing what's basically an extra winger to defend in your own box probably wasn't the best move of the window — I completely ignored this possibility. My fault.

“Then their long search for a striker ended with another injury-prone player: Christopher Nkunku. Let's be fair – I was excited for Openda to Juventus, but if possible, I'm even more excited for Nkunku to Milan. I think he can be one of the best players in Serie A if his body allows him to, and therefore the €42 million is a gamble, but one that could really pay off. Let's see what happens in Milan.”

Take what I wrote for Estupiñán and make it double. In the last games, when he came on and played more on the front foot, he showed he's still a good player — go and watch the final minutes of Milan-Atalanta if you can. I still have faith in him.

And then it was the last piece of the summer window. “I’m tired boss.”

“He comes on a simple loan for which Roma will just cover his salary. He'll be simply good for Roma when on the pitch, but will probably battle with Angeliño for the starting place.”

He wasn't, and I don't really know why, to be fair. The transition from the Premier League to Serie A should have been easy for him, but like with Estupiñán — another left wingback — something broke down. Is this a trend worth noticing?

“Asllani was not very good defensively for Inter, nor did he progress the ball a lot, but I still think it's an intelligent move for Torino. He's 23 – one year younger than Ricci whom he's going to replace – and comes with a loan fee of €1.5 million plus a €12.5 million option.Torino would want to give him a lot of minutes and help him grow into the player Inter thought he could become before transforming him into a bench warmer.”

Look, I still think this was the right move — his radar isn't that of a bad player — but here again he was shipped back to Inter in January and then went to Turkey. Sometimes strange things happen, and given Torino had a not-exactly-good season, I think that played a part.

“Niels Nkounkou seems like a good pickup for the €0.5 million loan fee + €5 million option. Born in 2000, he's entering peak-age for a left back and offers good quality but not quantity defense, while his strength comes from what he does on the ball. I like him and think he could finally put Biraghi on the bench.”

Well, go and look at his radar for Eintracht — he was good — but buddy, learn to speak defence or you can't set foot on a Serie A pitch. He's probably in the same boat as Miguel Gutiérrez: he should have changed his game to be more of a defensive wingback. Unfortunately a miss.

“They spent around €17 million on Zalewski, who was an okay wingback on everything for Roma in 2023/24 and a very good one when it came to dribbling, carrying, and creating shots. He's entering peak-age being born in 2002, so he could easily repay the amount Atalanta spent for him. I'm pretty okay with this one, even though it was a move that baffled many in Italy given he was paid half that by Inter 6 months ago.”

He played almost 2,400 minutes for Atalanta between Serie A and the UCL, deployed both as a left wingback and as a half-striker on the left. His value increased at Atalanta (Fotmob, TM). WIN.

“Then they did something very similar for the other wingback position, getting Yunus Musah from Milan for a package that could reach €25 million. Musah was not very good at Milan, but again he's a 2002, so he's just entering peak-age having played at Milan, in Champions League and all. Not only that, he can play multiple positions both in midfield, as a winger, and as a wingback. His numbers were not good, Jurić doesn't feel like the best development manager to me, Bellanova will be the starting right wingback, he won’t play as a winger and in midfield there’s fierce competition for a place, so this doesn't feel like a clever move.”

Less than 1,000 minutes played, bad radar, they won't keep him. Another win.

“Then they spent €25 million + add-ons for Mr. "I SHOOT THE BALL" Krstović. This seems a lot like the Retegui deal last year – a player who carried all the weight of the offense for a mediocre team with a fair return, and Atalanta picked him up for quite a high amount. Will Krstović win the Capocannoniere title and be sold for €60 million like Retegui? I want to doubt it, but his numbers seem okay given he'll probably be asked primarily to score goals.”

I think he was good enough for the money; Fotmob says his value is more or less what Atalanta paid. I'd say it was in line with what I said. Win.

“Fiorentina probably wasted money on Lamptey in short-term as he's basically attack-only, blocked by Dodô in the starting lineup, and very injury-prone.”

“Then they decided to spend a similar amount of money that Atalanta splashed on Krstović for Roberto Piccoli, who is kind of the same player but a little bit worse and one year younger, that was after having bought Džeko and already having locked up Kean in the team. I'm not with these two.”

Kean had basically his worst season ever while battling with injuries, and that had Piccoli playing almost 2,000 minutes in Serie A for Fiorentina, with this output:

I guess that's not 25 million worth of striker.

“Then we come to Sassuolo, who moved a lot on the market. They got Muric in the goalkeeper position from Ipswich for an option to buy over €10 million?! This seems good for Sassuolo to be fair, maybe a bit pricey, but we're still talking about a 1998 goalkeeper with two seasons in the Premier League worth of experience, even though Ipswich fans seem happy he was let go.”

That's a win for me again — he did his job, ranking third in goals prevented in Serie A:

Sassuolo decided to trigger the option, and I think they're probably lining him up to be sold, event though I find it hard they’ll be able to profit after just one season, he also already said he wouldn't play for the club again? I don't know what to think, but my read was good.

“Then they got Matić and Vranckx for their midfield – a very experienced one and one who was highly regarded as a talent some years ago. Matić comes on a free and will probably have the most immediate impact, so it's okay. Vranckx is on loan + option for €9 million, but it seems he needs a total reboot of his career, which I hope he gets.”

Matić played 2,800 minutes in Serie A to good effect. W

Vranckx did not get that reboot. A W again, I think.

“Then they got two centerbacks from relegated Venezia – strange – for a combined €12.5 million. Idzes is a 2000 and seems more highly regarded, but Candé (1998) was clearly the better one statistically and seems like a good pickup to try and avoid relegation.”

Candé suffered a pretty bad injury that basically ruled him out for the season; he played slightly less than 600 minutes, as a left back, in his campaign.

Idzes established himself as a starter, playing more than 3,000 minutes.

As you can see, they still show Candé as the one with better output, but we're talking about defenders, who are hard to evaluate with data. I wouldn't call these two wins, but not losses either. Therefore I'd say they need more time, Candé particularly.

So this was the last one. The summer has just started, much like the transfer window. There will be many more words to read. Thanks to those who read at least part of the 10,000 words this three-part review came to.

It's fair to say I could've saved clubs money and headaches, and I think it's also fair to say I'm at more than a 60% win rate on my predictions? I should count it, but I wrote three articles in two days, so allow me to delegate that to you if you want.

Then you can hit me with the percentage on X, LinkedIn, or wherever.

See you soon.