Pioli-Out?

Pioli has been the subject of criticism for over a year now, but he seems to have reached an inevitable turning point despite the season not even being halfway through. I want to reflect on his work, but to consider what he has done, we cannot overlook an element often left out when discussing Milan in general. Milan was acquired by Elliot in 2018 to start a path of growth and recovery, culminating in the sale to RedBird in the summer of 2022. Why is this important to keep in mind?

Because Milan was not what it is today - December 13, 2023 - after winning a Scudetto and reaching a Champions League semi-final in between. Ignoring the fact that Pioli and Elliot worked well together to restore value to a brand in a disastrous situation would be unfair. It should be noted that Pioli's results have given credibility, appeal, and economic stability to a club that - although in a significantly improved situation - still does not have the financial strength to say no to offers like the one for Tonali last summer. It must also be considered that Milan is still in a growth process, a process that requires the step of a new stadium to enter a new phase. A phase where potentially competing with the greats of Europe as history commands is possible.

In short, let's remember where Pioli and Milan started again from, let's remember what happened before, but also what happened in between: Donnarumma, Kessié, and Çalhanoğlu, valued and then lost for nothing. Now, let's pause for a second, this is not meant to be a pro-Pioli spiel, but evaluations must be fair and Pioli should be seen for what he is: a coach who was part of this growth step, who did his job bringing important and probably unexpected results. Nobody really or trusted wanted Pioli, not even his mother before he joined Milan - to paraphrase a contemporary Italia hero/meme - and he shone a lot - perhaps too much - at the beginning, with performances that seemed to come from another football world. I think of the victories against Juve during the Covid period, where the intensity brought by Milan was something unknown to Serie A regulars and could make one hope for an incredible Milan in the future.

And that future has arrived. Milan achieved the results mentioned, but why have I always thought that Pioli should have ended his Milan experience after the Scudetto, even after the Scudetto victory and the Champions League semi-final?

Well, firstly because Milan, as seen from the graph, was never extremely dominant. If at the beginning of Pioli's management the attack was dazzling - taking the average xG over 5 games - it was inconsistent in defense. The central part of the management sees a normalization and a continuous fluctuation of performances, culminating in the best prolonged defensive form period of all four years of Pioli on the bench in the Scudetto victory. In the first part of that same season, it is clear that Milan was still inconsistent in the defensive phase, and it will return right after the start of last season, where the fluctuation of performances - for now - has seen its peak, the red area indicating a positive production in the difference between xG produced and conceded is quite worrying. All this makes me think that the Scudetto was brought by a combination of elements: Inter making mistakes, the right form at the right time, and obviously a group of people who believed and did the necessary work to achieve an important goal. This does not detract from the emotions and work of that club and that fanbase - and this is also the beauty of football: the unexpected -, but that season was already fluctuating, and it shows in the data. Milan managed to make the most of its opportunity and did not fail.

Pioli is - for me - partly responsible for the later performances. The players might have felt satisfied, as we said, and some left over time while the financial resources remained rather limited. If the Scudetto victory made it illogical to change coaches two summers ago, last summer there was no logic, in my opinion, in keeping a coach who systematically refuses to play all the new signings (did Pioli have a say in the market?), who the xG tells us had his worst season, and who only casually managed to qualify for the Champions League and the semi-finals of the same competition - let's be honest.

This is why I believe Pioli deserves to be dismissed, but with respect, he brought Milan, of which he had just taken the reins, to a dimension it hadn't seen in years, and he gave the red-and-black fans so much self-esteem that they now demand his head when the team doesn't keep up in the Scudetto fight. Pioli should be judged as the one who built the foundations and the first floors of the building, not as the one who was supposed to finish the building and furnish it, yet he brought more joy than anyone could have expected.

(for intellectual honesty I will not modify the article based on the result of Newcastle - Milan)