Will Ugarte be better than Casemiro?

Manchester United recently signed Manuel Ugarte from PSG for a substantial fee, sparking plenty of conversation about what he brings to the table - mostly because it Manchester United. Indeed over the past few weeks, I’ve read some pieces on Ugarte which more or less can be summarized like this: “He’s great at defending, very aggressive, but his passing leaves much to be desired.” But let’s dig deeper.

How does he stack up against United's current midfield anchor, Casemiro, especially when considering the different contexts they’ve been playing in? And more importantly, what kind of role will Ugarte be asked to fill at Old Trafford? To answer these questions, I’ve put together a comparative analysis based on a range of metrics, drawing inspiration from an old Statsbomb’s article. Here's a rapid list of the metrics I’ve considered on the defensive side:

1. Activity/Defensive Actions (PADJ): This metric quantifies the number of defensive actions — recoveries, clearances, tackles, interceptions, and fouls — adjusted for the volume of passes and carries by the opponents while the player was on the pitch. The idea? To represent how active a player is defensively over an average game.

2. Tackle Win Rate: Beyond just the basic percentage, this stat adds nuance by considering tackles that resulted in a foul as "double failures." It gives us a clearer picture of how effective (and disciplined) a player is when challenging for possession.

3. Aggression: Calculated as the ratio of interceptions and tackles to clearances and recoveries. A ratio above 1 suggests a player is more focused on winning back possession proactively rather than merely reacting or clearing the ball.

4. Depth: Here, we’re looking at the difference between the percentage of defensive actions occurring above the halfway line versus below it. This metric isn’t about being "good" or "bad" per se — it tells us how adventurous a player is, which can vary significantly based on their position and the dominance his team can impose in the game.

5. Ratings: I’ve also included two ratings to give a rounded sense of each player’s contribution. The first is an “Atomic VAEP” score, a possession value model that’s calculated by summing together the defensive and offensive value of every action. The second is that defending value. We calculate it by creating a value per 90 minutes played.

For this analysis, I’ve compared Ugarte and Casemiro against a pool of players expected to play as the "6" for other Premier League clubs. I’ve even thrown in Frenkie de Jong for good measure — after all, he’s a Ten Hag favorite and a former United target.

The table is arranged in descending order for the activity metric, with metrics that are colored ranging from white (low) to black (high) for quick reference. While I encourage you to dive into the numbers, I’d suggest holding off until you’ve had a chance to digest the rest of the piece.

Activity and Tackles

When it comes to defensive activity, Manuel Ugarte stands out.

Among all the players analyzed, he is the most active in terms of defensive actions, outperforming all the players selected. The only players who come close to matching his numbers are Edson Álvarez during his time at Ajax and Casemiro at Manchester United. This should already underline the intensity the Uruguayan brings to the table.

Now, let’s talk tackles. Ugarte won 56% of his tackles both at Sporting Lisbon and PSG — exactly the same win rate as Casemiro at United and Endo at Liverpool. Interestingly, this is also a higher success rate than other Premier League midfielders like Caicedo, Baleba, and Gravenberch (the numbers doesn’t include the current season). This consistency, across different teams and leagues, shows that Ugarte’s defensive tenacity is a key part of his game, and he’s already improved a lot given how he scored at Famalicão.

It’s more than a possibility that his win rate could drop in bringing his talent to England, but we should just wait.

Aggression

Aggression is another area where Ugarte shines.

He consistently ranks among the most aggressive players on this list, with two of the top four values for this metric. What does that mean in practice? It suggests that Ugarte is heavily involved in interceptions and tackles, always looking to disrupt the opposition’s rhythm. However, there’s an interesting twist: at PSG, his aggression levels dropped significantly.

This shift in style is even more evident if we watch Ugarte’s “depth” metric, which shows where on the pitch his defensive actions are happening, which dropped noticeably at PSG. Most of his defensive actions occurred deeper, with a median height of 43 meters from his own goal vs 47m at Sporting. Many of his actions were below the halfway line, suggesting a more reserved role than what we saw from him at Sporting Lisbon.

My theory is that he was asked to give balance to a team in which Mbappé was clearly not asked to defend, and where the attacking personnel was always rotating. But only some video analysis can give the correct answer to this change in data.

Anyway, when we compare Ugarte’s time at Sporting Lisbon with his stint at PSG, we notice a striking difference in how high up the pitch he operated.

At Sporting, Ugarte played in a more advanced role, frequently engaging opponents higher up the field, thanks to the dominance Ruben Amorim’s team often had in games. At PSG, however, his median defensive action height dropped significantly probably reflecting the different challenges PSG faced in Ligue 1 last season too, where they often struggled to exert the level of control they would’ve liked, and consequently made Ugarte operate differently.

Yet, this deeper positioning isn't necessarily a downside. In fact, it highlights Ugarte's ability to adapt to different tactical requirements. Despite playing deeper, he still showed the capacity to cover area more connected to fullbacks and wingbacks — something that Erik ten Hag is likely to appreciate.

Back to Casemiro, he remains one of the most aggressive players on the list, but there's a big difference in where his aggression takes place if compared to Ugarte. The Brazilian tends to engage lower on the pitch, closer to his own goal. This means that when Casemiro commits to a challenge, any mistake or failed tackle leaves the opponent with fewer players to beat and less ground to cover before they have a shot at goal.

It's a crucial point to consider for United, especially in transition, a phase of play in which United is really shaking. Should also be noted that last season Casemiro also operated as a centerback, which further brings the numbers lower - 30m median height.

Some analysis have suggested Ugarte struggled to adapt to the intensity of Ligue 1, but I’m not convinced. It seems more likely that his real challenge was adjusting to Luis Enrique’s system and its specific demands.

Ugarte’s natural style as we already seen is adventurous and aggressive — he loves to step out, make challenges, and take risks, even if it means leaving space behind him. For a United side already struggling to cover gaps in midfield, as exposed in the 3-0 thrashing by Feyenoord before the Nations League break, this is something worth considering which we haven’t really stated clearly so far. However, Ten Hag does need players who are athletically dominant and physically imposing, particularly in defensive positions — qualities that Ugarte can potentially offer better than an aging Casemiro. And, as the data suggests, Ugarte tends to operate in different areas of the pitch and operating more than the Brazilian.

Ugarte also brings value in possession. He consistently adds value from passes made after recoveries, tackles won, and interceptions. The data shows high “Atomic VAEP” values (a possession value metric) from the zones where Ugarte frequently wins the ball and immediately follows up with a pass. The most intense red areas indicate where he does that the most, while the numbers in those area suggest high quantity paired with high quality.

It’s worth noting that the Atomic VAEP model gives more value to actions closer to the opposition’s goal and those that advance the ball further up the pitch. This suggests that Ugarte isn’t just active; he’s effective, maybe even opting for riskier, more progressive passes after winning possession, though, let's take this with a pinch of salt. In those situations nonetheless he completed 2.2% and 7.5% more passes than expected.

Quality

One more thing the table clearly shows: Ugarte consistently performs defensive actions with higher value than Casemiro, both in terms of defensive ratings and the Atomic VAEP metric. In fact, Casemiro registers the lowest values in the table for both categories in his time at United — ouch! Ugarte's defensive contributions will probably have a greater impact overall.

Passing

Now, let’s talk about Ugarte’s passing game. It’s true that he doesn’t play a lot of progressive passes — around 4 per 90 minutes, according to FBREF, compared to roughly 6 per 90 for Casemiro at Manchester United. However, both players tend to struggle in this area. Casemiro, for instance, completes about 21.5% fewer progressive passes than expected, highlighting a clear area for improvement in terms of accuracy and effectiveness when moving the ball forward.

Ugarte’s numbers also show room for improvement, though he slightly outperforms Casemiro in this area. At Sporting Lisbon, Ugarte completed 17.8% fewer progressive passes than expected, while at PSG, he was 13.3% below expectations — still not great for a top side, but better than Casemiro's 21.5% shortfall at Manchester United. This difference could be due to Ugarte’s more conservative decision-making while on the ball, opting for safer passes, but there’s also the fact that the Premier League is a tougher environment than either Liga Portugal or Ligue 1.

How these numbers will translate to England remains to be seen, but based on what we’ve analyzed so far, Ugarte should still represent an upgrade over Casemiro for United.

Finally, let’s take a closer look at passing performance overall. Casemiro’s passing metrics reveal a clear pattern: his most frequently performed types of passes consistently fall short of expectations. All four of his most common passing clusters have completion percentages below what would be anticipated, with his most frequent pass type being the one where he underperforms the most across 16 different clusters.

In short, Casemiro’s passing stats suggest that he may not be as effective in this area as one might hope. This stands in contrast to Ugarte, who, while not stellar, still shows better performance overall.

Ugarte indeed shows a more favorable picture with his passing performance. Most of his frequently performed pass types exceed expectations, demonstrating a positive impact. Even in the two clusters where he underperforms, the gap is below 3%, indicating that his passing isn’t that much detrimental.

This clusters also show Ugarte’s passing style, which tends to favor sideways and backward passes. While this may limit his progressive passing, it ensures that he maintains a reliable passing rate in more controlled situations. Overall, Ugarte's passing metrics suggest he offers a more consistent and effective contribution in midfield compared to Casemiro.

Overall Assessment

In summary, Manuel Ugarte appears to be an upgrade over Casemiro in many fundamental aspects of the defensive midfield role. While his progressive passing isn’t a major leap forward compared to Casemiro, and he may adopt a more conservative approach in possession, Ugarte brings valuable qualities to the table. His playing style is better suited to a dominant, high-pressure approach, which could benefit United in controlling games from a higher up the pitch and it probably what Ten Hag wants to do, somewhat replicating his old Ajax iterations.

Defensively, Ugarte’s aggressive style and ability to cover ground will put pressure on Lisandro Martinez, Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt and the rest of the defensive personnel to stay vigilant in managing the spaces he leaves open in midfield. On the flip side, Ugarte’s presence could free up Dalot and Mazraoui to attack more freely, and help Martinez and De Ligt - go and watch his style at Ajax - to rediscover their aggressive side, potentially adding another dimension to United’s play.

As I said, how these numbers will translate to the Premier League is yet to be seen, but history shows that teams from the Premier League aren’t afraid to buy from Ligue 1 and Liga Portugal. Ugarte’s role as a central figure in Bielsa’s national team should further guarantee his athleticism and capability.

With Erik ten Hag’s proven ability to utilize a variety of midfielders in the “6” role at Ajax — players like Frenkie de Jong, Edson Álvarez, Lasse Shöne and others — there’s every reason to believe he should be able to harness Ugarte’s strengths effectively.

Overall, Ugarte seems poised to make a positive impact at Manchester United.