Dear Juventus, Which Striker to Sign in June?

During the January transfer window, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of Juventus signing a striker, especially after Spalletti highlighted the need for one with a specific set of characteristics. With that in mind, I tried to find out whether Juve actually have a problem with long balls and who could be the solution come June.

My work draws heavily on what Jaymes Monte had already done for Statsbomb on second balls. I won't link the blog post for several reasons, one of which being that Statsbomb themselves, following the transition to Hudl, decided to take the link down. If you're interested, feel free to reach out to me privately or look it up on your own.

Two things before we dive in. I'll be using several concepts from here on out, the most important of which are: long ball, meaning a pass that originates in the first two thirds of the pitch and lands in the final, attacking third; and meaningful possession, meaning a pass with the feet, a cross, a shot, a carry, or a dribble that occurs in the final third within 10 seconds of the long ball.

Do Juve Have a Problem in This Area?

Yes and no. They're the team that goes long the least in all of Serie A, but their rate of meaningful possessions following a long ball is slightly above average.

To underline Locatelli's importance in the team's ball progression, here are Juventus' five most frequently played long balls:

Juventus win a high percentage of first contacts — meaning simply that after the long ball, a touch of any kind comes from another Bianconero player — ranking 4th in Serie A, 7% above average. However, they're also one of the teams that concede the most value to opponents in the 30 seconds following the long ball, recording the 2nd worst difference between the value they produce in the first 10 seconds and the value opponents generate in the subsequent 30.

It's hard to pinpoint the exact reason for this without further analysis, and it would be reductive to blame it entirely on the striker, but the fact remains that Juve concede the most in this regard. My theory is that the long ball is used precisely — as Spalletti says — to relieve pressure in difficult moments, and that it often doesn't work out in the medium-term phase of the play.

So, What About the Strikers?

Looking at individual players, among the 29 centre-forwards with at least 800 minutes played in the league (of which Openda, David, and Vlahovic represent Juventus), none of the Juve strikers come close to the set's average for first contacts won.

For this reason, it's difficult to draw conclusions about the percentage of meaningful possessions generated for the team after a first contact won by these players. David has only 4 first contacts won; I'll include the full rankings below regardless.

What About the Players Juventus Targeted on the Market?

Mateta doesn't appear to be a particularly significant upgrade: his 0.8 first contacts won on average rank 111th among strikers with at least 1,000 minutes played across the following leagues: Jupiler Pro League, Brasileirão, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie, Liga Portugal, and Süper Lig. Crystal Palace's meaningful possession rate following one of his first contacts sits around 57.9%, the 45th-highest value among the same group of strikers.

Sørloth, on the other hand, wins an average of 1.2 first contacts per match (58th), while Atlético's meaningful possession rate afterwards is 54.5% (51st). Højlund, who isn't a target but was name-dropped by Spalletti, wins 0.85 first contacts (101st), though Napoli convert those into a meaningful possession 60% of the time (35th).

So, Who Should Juve Target?

If the plan remains to add a striker who can do these things — but, being Juve, not only these things — then my research did turn up a few names that caught my eye. Evan Ferguson, inexplicably discarded by Gasperini, could be one to watch. Keinan Davis, before getting injured, was one of the best in Serie A by percentage. Moise Kean posts interesting numbers in this area, but yet another return and the rest of his game make him unconvincing. Gift Orban and Henrik Meister might deserve a closer look as well, and who knows how many other names I've missed.

But for me, the name is one and one only: Álvaro Rodríguez of Elche, former teammate of Nico Paz at Real Madrid B.

Rodríguez's long ball numbers aren't earth-shattering: 1.6 first contacts won on average (21st), with Elche's subsequent meaningful possession rate at 47.6% (82nd, below average). But the player was born in 2004, meaning he has plenty of room to grow. He comes from a major league in La Liga, and a few players who have come through the youth academies of Spain's two giants are already making an impact in Serie A. He'd actually already caught my attention a few weeks ago for the average number of standing dribbles attempted among strikers (ignore the title):

His radar speaks for itself:

He offers a lot across all facets of the game for a striker, despite touching the ball relatively little inside the box — something that would presumably change at Juventus. How his game would translate remains to be seen, as the amount of space and pressure he'd be dealing with would shift, but in any case he wouldn't just be a target man brought in to do that one thing.

Whether Real Madrid and Elche would let him come to Italy and Juventus — well, that's a whole other story.